Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Three teams that would propel Robert Quinn to Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
Top 3 teams Robert Quinn would become dominating player:
By: Carl Hammill
1. Dallas Cowboys (#9 pick) – A talented but misguided defense in 2010. Add Jason Garrett an organizational zealot and Rob Ryan the evil twin of Rex Ryan and you already have a potent 1-2 punch. Sprinkle in a little Robert Quinn and your probablylooking at your last to first team for 2011. DeMarcus Ware fetched 15.5 sacks against consistent double and triple teams; are you kidding me? Quinn simply leaning forward on a few downs would take some pressure off Ware. If Dallas drafts Robert Quinn you might as well start the clock on Michael Strahan’s single season QB record because it is in major jeopardy.
2. Houston Texans (#11 Pick) – Texans would need some luck here for Quinn to drop this far. But it could happen if a team shakes the NFL draft early by taking Cam Newton. Then all bets are off as it would likely force a team to trade up for Blaine Gabbert. After the dust settles…you could have Quinn sitting in the Texans lap. It would be a perfect fit. The Texans already possess a potent offense and the defense has some talent of its own. A strong secondary and Mario Williams on one side of defensive line makes this team a complimentary pass rusher away from being the force we thought they would be in 2010. Enter Robert Quinn and new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips was instrumental in guiding DeMarcus Ware to elite pass rusher status. Imagine the possibilities with two bookends and defensive guru Phillips attacking vulnerable offenses.
3. San Fransico 49ers (#7) – Another 3-4 defense to my list? Well Quinn has ideal length to fit into 3-4 scheme. Like DeMarcus Ware, he may feel more comfortable standing up. Ware and Quinn have almost identical height and weight. Newly hired defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is conservative with dialing up blitzes. Instead he likes to rely on the defensive front to generate pressure which makes Quinn more valuable. Harbaugh and Fangio could have the 49ers flying around the field this year as the ghost of Mike Singletary fades.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Julio Jones vs. A.J. Green
The more video I watch – the more I am convinced Julio Jones is the best player in this draft. Now only few weeks ago Jones was A.J. Green sidekick in player rankings. A gritty performance at the combine with Jones (playing on broken foot) looking better than Green. This caused a rush to reevaluate Jones on film and this is what we found.
Size:
Julio Jones - 6’3” 220 pounds
A.J. Green – 6’3’ 211 pounds
Edge: Jones
Speed:
Julio Jones – 4.39 40 yard dash
A.J. Green – 4.48 40 yard dash
Edge: Jones
Video:
Julio Jones – runs with aggression, very powerful and tough
A.J. Green – uses long arms and huge hands to snatch ball away from his body
Edge: Jones
Where I see each getting drafted:
A.J. Green – with Jones recovering from broken bone injury, Cincy will take the safer pick and go with Green to replace the departed TO and Ocho.
Julio Jones – I just think Jerry Jones has something up his sleeve in this draft. Jones has been the face of NFL owners during labor dispute and while it’s not always good press its attention none the less…and Jones craves that. He will stay in spotlight and pull a shocker on draft day by trading Dez Bryant and selecting Julio Jones with #9 pick. I believe Jason Garrett and Co will find Jones to be more coachable in a team oriented philosophy recently installed.
Monday, March 21, 2011
NFL Lock-out – how to fix this
NFL Owners:
NFL Owners say - Players received over 70% of incremental Revenues. Let’s look athow they arrived at those numbers (2010):
They deducted close to 2 billion dollars off incoming revenue for new Stadiums or improvements and NFL Network. So here are the owner’s numbers: Revenues 5.4 billion (7.2 gross revenues - 1.8 in stadium cost, NFL Network)Salaries to Player 3.8 billion (this is not disputed by players).
Owners say 70% of Revenues paid to players (3.8 / 5.4)
Players Association:
Players Union Say - Players received 53% of incremental Revenues. A look at the numbers (2010): * Players say the cost associated with stadium build-outs and NFL Network are part of operating cost and not to be deducted from total revenue: Revenues 7.2 billion gross revenues
Salaries to players 3.8 billion
Players say 53% of Revenues paid to players (3.8 / 7.2)
Stadium Cost at the core of the dispute:
As I suspected all along - this comes down to the accounting of stadium cost. The owners want to deduct stadium cost off the top line (Total Revenues) and players want to deduct it after revenues in the Cost of Operations section of Ledger. My personal opinion is that the cost should stay in Cost section of Income Statement not as a deduction of Revenue BUT I think the players union should bear a percentage of the cost that is vital to growth and popularity to build these stadiums. Don't get caught up in the numbers as they will change going forward...but this really is a matter of - should the players bear some of the cost to rebuild the NFL infrastructure? If the answer is yes (and I believe they should) you basically have three choices:
Ways to fix it: 1) Total Revenue is total revenue - Players receive a percentage of total revenues. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers total revenue was 7.2 billion and players received 3.8 billion of that (53%). This is the players dream scenario as the owners are on the hook 100% for stadium build-out and NFL Network and player’s % of income is just north of 50%. 2) Deduct new stadium cost from total revenues - This is owners dream scenario as the stadium cost, NFL Network take close to 2 billion off the top number and now players salaries will represent over 70% Revenue and likely will force players to renegotiate terms as 70% is unsustainable for any business model. 3) This is hybrid of the two - players and owner will absorb cost for stadium build-out. You can accomplish this two ways - allow owners to reduce total income for stadiums and NFL Network but only 50% instead of 100% currently being used by owners. This approach puts player salaries at 63% of income (lower than owners current estimates of 70% and higher than players estimates of 53%). You could also just leave total revenues alone and set up an escrow account that players must pay into for stadium cost that is repaid back to owners over period of time.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Five Players to Avoid in the Draft
This list may surprise a lot of you, but I have some simple criteria that I apply:
1. Injury history, especially significant injuries.
2. Off the field issues (legal, disciplinary, suspensions, drugs, fights, etc.)
3. One year wonders.
4. Players who need to be motivated.
Those are pretty obvious but each year there are first rounder’s who fall into that category. Not all of them are busts but that increases the odds; and considering how far back the wrong first selection can put your franchise I am amazed that people take so many chances. Not all of the players listed below will turn out to be busts but I would avoid trying to hit a home run with any of these players and take the base.
One last note. I am focusing on projected first round picks. If Joe Smith from Podunk State, who’s a marginal 6th round pick to begin with, has character issues then shame on you for wasting your pick on the stiff to begin with.
Here are five to avoid:
1. Cam Newtown. Unmatched athletically. No question. By my criteria he has two major strikes against him 1) Only one year as the starter and 2) Off field questions regarding his fathers alleged dealing with recruiters are t oo specific to not cause concern.
2. Nick Fairley. Another one hit wonder. At times Fairley’s motor has been questioned, which is an automatic no-no for me. Again, it’s not a question of talent. He may be the most talented player in the draft, but I pass. The fact that both Newtown and Fairley come out of the same program makes me suspicious also.
3. Ryan Mallett. If you get the QB pick wrong just put a stake in your franchise for the next 3 years. Look at the Panthers. How many QB’s do they plan on drafting? Mallett has cannon; however, he runs like Nate Newton. Even more troubling, his leadership ability has been questioned and allegations of drug use should send the red flag warning up to all teams.
4. Jake Locker. Seemingly destined to be the top pick in the draft heading into his senior season, the versatile Locker really regressed in 2010. Not only did he have trouble throwing a catchable ball, but he also had trouble telling a Husky from a Bulldog.
5. Rahim Moore. In a year when the safety crop is weak at best, someone will reach for the athletic Moore. The two major concerns about Moore is that he has a slight build which kind of is a problem when you job is to hit people. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t like to tackle. Doesn’t quite sound like Ronnie Lott to me. Throw in the fact that he doesn’t show good instincts and you draft first round talent and a fifth round player.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Big Nasty Defensive Tackles win Championships
Often, we hear the QB position is the most important to a team and the high percentage of “franchise tags” for QBs would support this.
But for my money, give me a disruptive force against the core of a offensive line – the middle. You know the same location a QB starts the play and often the same location a running game tries to establish its toughness.
This is the era of disruptive DTs. Attacking the underbelly of an offense line is good business in NFL (7 of the last 11 super bowl winners possessed dominant NT playing in 3-4 defense). The smart teams have figured it out by drafting pressure DT who can play NT or DE in 3-4 alignment. They possess the strength/size to hold down NT role while having the athletic ability to slide over to DE to marauder opposing QBs. The line between DE and DT in 3-4 have narrowed considerably. Even Bill Belichick moved the immovable NT Vince Wilfork to DE in spot situations in 2011.
Now what works really well here is having a traditional 2 gap technique NT to go along with your hybrid DT/DE. Kelly Gregg gives Baltimore the flexibility to move Haloit Ngata anywhere they want. Ryan Pickett is a great compliment to moving B.J. Raji ”The Freezer” to the inside. Below is a list (Part 1) of disruptive DTs who are dominant against rush or pass and in several situations – both. In Part 2, we discuss top 5 DTs in the 2011 NFL Draft who have the strength and athletic ability to play NT or DE.
1. Haloti Ngata (Bal) 6’4″ 350 lbs – a new era NT who can also play end. He is more of a souped-up SUV. What makes him so special is he can be dominant at NT or DE in 3-4 defense. An “absolute monster” according to Colts center Jeff Saturday. Compiled 62 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
2. Vince Wilfork (NE) 6’2″ 325 lbs – one of the most dominant space eaters of the past few years. Belechik showed us he can play DE also. Pure 2 gap technique nose tackle.
3. Ndamukong Suh (Det) 6’4 305 lbs – Stunning numbers for a rookie DT (66 tackles and 10 sacks). Gil Brandt a longtime Cowboys scout recently stated that Suh is “the Merlin Olsen of today”. Suh played in a two-gap system at Nebrask, but Detroit’s cut him loose in a one-gap style that encourages linemen to “play the run on the way to the quarterback.” 4. B.J. Raji “The Freezer” (GB) 6’2″ 337 lbs – was a wrecking ball in postseason. Had 39 tackles and 7 sacks in 2011. Remember his name.
5. Kyle Williams “Meatball” (Buf) 6’1″ 310 lbs – Terror against against the run and pass this year. A low center of gravity guy who keeps getting better. 77 tackles and 5.5 sacks and making his first pro-bowl appearance.
(honorable mention – two stud players who I thought declined somewhat in 2011 – Casey Hampton, PITT and Kevin Williams, MINN)
AFC East Pre Draft Analysis
AFC East:
This was a really interesting division for two reasons, the Pats impressive 14-2 regular season record and the freak parade that is the New York Jets. Rex has made this a rivalry whether the Pats wanted it to be one or not. Ryan NEVER stops talking. Even when he should just shut the hell up, he doesn’t. These two should be right back in the middle of it next September. Another reason is that the two teams below them, the Dolphins and the Bills won’t present a major challenge in the coming year. The Dolphins seem to languish around 500, mainly because they get schizophrenic play from their quarterback Chad Henne. The Bills on the other hand may have found some stability at quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
New England Patriots 14-2
The 2010 season wasn’t supposed to be “the year” for the Pats. They were rebuilding their defense and after trading away Whiny Moss early in the season they had to change their offensive style to compliment their personnel. They ended up going 14-2 and trouncing many opponents along the way. If the Pats could have connected on what should have been somewhat easy touchdowns on their first two drives against the Jets in the playoffs, the season might have ended differently. The Pats are one of the best run organizations in football. They don’t hold players past their prime and don’t make it emotional. They are willing to trade almost anybody which is why they have two first round picks in next month NFL Draft.
Strengths:
1. An owner and coach that only know how to win.
2. One of the best coaches in the league, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
3. A first ballot hall of fame quarterback.
4. A young defense.
5. Two first round picks, six picks (6) in the first three rounds!
Weaknesses:
1. Two all-pro offensive lineman, Matt Light and Logan Mankins about to become free agents.
2. Defensive end. No pressure without William Seymour.
3. Linebacker. See defensive end.
4. Wide receiver. It seemed for a while the team didn’t need Randy Moss. However, there was no go-to guy when the Pats really needed one in the playoffs.
Needs: See weaknesses above. Yes they have some concerns, especially if they were to lose both Light and Mankins, but the Pats are the best at salvaging careers and finding former stars that have a year left who can play a critical role for a season or two. Plus with their arsenal of picks they should be able to bolster their young defense, add a quality offensive lineman and find another wide out to keep Gisele, I mean Tom, happy.
New York Jets 11-5
Where do you start? Shhh, listen, Rex just predicted the Jets would win the 2013 and 2014 Super Bowl as well! The cocky head coach persona is fun and can work for a while, but pretty soon even the most victory starved Jets fans will want this team to get err done. I am shocked they made it to two straight AFC Championship games in a row with the perennial circus this team is. Lets look back at some of the distractions: Edwards – DUI, the Ryan’s foot fetish video, tripping-gate, Sanchez and the 17 year old and Favre’s wiener photos to name a few.
This team does have talent, specifically on the offensive side of the ball with an up and coming Mark Sanchez leading the team. There are challenges with a host of free agents to resign as well as Rex’s predictions to live up to. Regardless they’ll be worth keeping an eye on to see how this all shakes out.
Strengths:
1. A young franchise QB who shows maturity on the field, even when he doesn’t off the field.
2. One of the best offensive lines in the league.
3. A ton of weapons on offense.
4. Darrelle Revis.
Weaknesses:
1. Three of their four wide outs, including starters Homes and Edwards, are free agents.
2. No pass rush.
3. Overrated defense that is prone to the big play.
4. Rex Ryan. He may get them to play, but I think this doesn’t end well. It won’t be this year, but down the road it won’t be pretty. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Needs: The Jets should be able to retain their offense, including the wide outs to give them a real dynamic offense next year. The real strength is their offensive line. Even if Damien Woody isn’t brought back they have Vladimir Ducasse how was selected high in the last draft and should be able to add some insurance this year as well. The key thing for the Jets is finding a way to get to the QB without blitzing which should help Revis and the rest of the secondary give up less big plays.
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Boring! How else would you describe this team? Does anybody care? I was a big Tony Sporano fan when he was in Dallas but he has been anything but impressive during his tenure as the Dolphins coach. This team is in complete disarray. Parcells puts his boy Jeff Ireland in charge, gets another one of his boys Sporano, to coach and them proceeds to quit or take a leave of absence, get stuck on the toilet, whatever, during the season. Wonder Boy, Ireland spends his days thinking of genius questions for incoming rookies like “Was your mom a hooker?” You can’t make this stuff up. Then Sporano is fired. They go after Jim Harbaugh and he says, “thanks, but no thanks” and signs with the 49ER’s so they have to crawl back to poor Sporano. On the field Chad Henne is doing his best Alex Smith impression by sucking the first 10-12 games and then looking good down the stretch so the team can’t figure out whether they should fish (hardy –har-har) or cut bait.
Strengths:
1. Brandon Marshal is a stud trapped in Miami.
2. Jake Long is a franchise left tackle, assuming his shoulder is ok.
3. Yes only 2. This should tell you what I think of the Dolphins.
Weaknesses:
1. Dysfunction from top to bottom. Whose running this ship and why?
2. Quarterback. Henne is destined to be a backup.
3. Aside from Long the line is a mess.
4. Mediocrity. They seem like a team destined to hover between 6-10 & 9-7 for a long time.
5. Their division.
Needs: The Dolphins have a lot of needs and are without a #2 pick with the Marshal trade so they could be moving south on draft day. Do they take a QB in the first round? Not likely. Look for them to take another Chad Henne in round 2. This team needs a major shakeup. What a mess!
Buffalo Bills 4-12
Despite their record the Bills were a competitive team for most of the season, especially after Ryan Fitzpatrick took over as the starting quarterback. The two seasons ending blowouts put a little damper on an otherwise optimistic feel. Compare the Bills and the Dolphins. Obviously Miami has more talent, but which fan base should be more optimistic? I say the Bills because they have stability at quarterback and even though the jury is still out on Chan Gailey, at least there appears to be a game plan.
Strengths:
1. The #9 pick should give the Bills a stud on defense they sorely need.
2. Fitzpatrick put up very impressive numbers and should improve his overall play with a full offseason as the starter.
3. Depth at running back.
4. Stevie Johnson had a breakout season last year.
Weaknesses:
1. Defense. Starting with the sieve of a line and the strainer-like linebacker corps.
2. Playmakers. Aside from Johnson they are thin at wide out and need a playmaker at tight end.
3. Depth everywhere, aside from running back, is a problem.
Needs: I think there is reason for optimism in Buffalo. Keep in mind they still have 6 more months of winter ahead of them, but I think this team is on the upswing. Is Fitzpatrick the long term answer at QB or should they start grooming his eventual replacement? Interesting questions they will have to answer this offseason. First things first, fix the D!
Monday, March 7, 2011
What Every Team Needs
A must have for every team…………………………….
A great quarterback? Obviously. A strong head coach with the support of the front office? Again, yes! Anyone can make the obvious connection between a strong defense and playoff football success. We all know battles are won in the trenches. It is also cliché to say that teams that put pressure on the quarterback and have shot down corners have a distinct advantage.
The key ingredient that everyone seems to be overlooking is the power that the long-haired dudes possess. You need look no further than the two teams in the Super Bowl for text book examples of the crazy-haired dude phenomena. Case in point, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Are you kidding me? How can they not win and be nasty with dudes like that? Ok, so we took an embellished view of Troy’s locks but there is no denying the man brings it. As for Keisel, we all remember seeing him in the playoffs with his beard all covered in icicles, steam coming out of everywhere. That’s a football player baby! How about the Super Bowl champs you ask? These guys have got the winning formula. They have the current poster boy for long hair in superstar linebacker, Clay Mathews Jr. To boot they’ve got a bunch of guys in the secondary with dread’s hanging out the back of their helmets that are picking the ball off left and right. Throw in the big hitter in the middle, A.J. Hawk and they are loaded with hair!
Gabe Carimi (OT Wisconsin) - He has the wild Brett Keisel look and the straight- laced psycho look. This guy is big, mean and ready for a bar fight.
Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor) - This dude is a beast. He will literally eat you for lunch. If you’re a kid in the playground he will eat your lunch!!!
Casey Mathews (ILB, Oregon) - Not the flashy pass rusher his brother is, but he is tough, a sure tackler and will be a fixture inside for some lucky team come the 2011 season.
Brooks Reed (OLB, Arizona) - A bit of a DE/OLB tweener, but he’s a great pass rusher, who is rising up draft boards based on his combine workout and his non stop motor.
Charlie Sheen (University of Crazy) - Who better? Ok, he doesn’t have long hair, but look at those eyes! You saw him as Wild Thing, he’s got game! Even if never sees the field he can set up the new “White House” like the Boys had back in the day.
Duh, winning! 
Now just because a dude has a long head of hair does not ensure success on the football field. Look no further than Big D for two long-haired enigmas.
When the Cowboys drafted Carpenter in the first round they thought they were getting another Ohio State stud linebacker. What they got was the soft version of Clay Mathews. His teammates gave him the affectionate nickname of “Barbie” Carpenter & then he was traded. What happened to MBIII? Here’s the equation: Hard running when you’re hungry and underpaid — fat contract — aging = 3.3 yards per carry. He’ll more than likely be looking for work elsewhere next season. He plays more like Marian the “Librarian” than the “Barbarian”.
With the draft fast approaching here are five long haired dudes to keep your eye on:
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Top 5 WRs – NFL Draft 2011
Top 5 WRs – NFL Draft 2011
1) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama (6’3” 220 lbs) – put on a stunning combine performance and possibly leapfrogged A.J. Green as the top WR in the NFL Draft 2011. What makes this remarkable was that Jones did this while running on a broken bone in his foot. Jones ran a sparkling 4.39 40 (faster than the consensus top WR in the draft, Georgia’s AJ Green, who ran a 4.48) and 11’3″ in the broad jump (tops at the combine for WR). Jones made a case that he is the man to beat and wowed NFL scouts with his speed, precise routes and toughness.
2) A.J. Green, WR, Georgia (6’3” 211) – there is no way Green saw Julio Jones performance at combines coming. That doesn’t take away from Green impressive 2010 season. Green has long arms and huge hands. Has shown ability to reach and catch passes without bringing the ball to the body. Just needs to get with team trainer to add size and keep those physical DB at bay. Ran 4.48 40 at combine.
3) Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland (6’1” 204 lbs) – Receivers start to drop into the 20 – 32 range here. Smith ran the 40-yard dash in 4.41 seconds and caught almost everything that was thrown his way at combine. Electric in open field and posted 12 Tds in 2011. His 40 time combined with his ability to run in space keeps him at the top of the second tier WRs.
4) Leonard Hankerson WR Miami (6’2” 209) – if a team reaches for a WR in this draft don’t be surprised if it’s Hankerson name that’s called. After dropping a lot of passes early in his career he asked for help from ex NFL player Mark Duper. The results were a more consistent 2010 season in which Hankerson broke Michael Irvin season TD record by grabbing 13 TDs. Hankerson also ran a 4.0 40 time. He is tough receiver who is not afraid to go over the middle – combined with his size and 40 speed at combine makes him one of our favorite players in this draft.
5) Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh (6’4” 228 lbs) – Baldwin ran 4.49 40 but was inconsistent in his routes and struggled catching the ball at combines. Has huge size and was productive at collegiate level. Is a player teams will consider a steal in round 2 but may hesitate taking him in 1st round.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
NFL Draft Sleeper Pick - Phil Taylor DT
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Phil Taylor (Baylor) 6’4” 340 lbs
Most intriguing defensive tackle in the draft and he is rising to potentially the first round. Huge size with surprising agility (tested well at combines). When you see Taylor you think this guy is a “zero technique” tackle who will plug your defensive line for long time. But he gets moved sideways way too easily for his size. Could be dynamic as a guy you play at DE in 3-4 alignment then move him over to NT on passing downs. Taylor destroyed Demarcus Love in one-on-one drills and pretty much dominated the entire North offensive line during North-South game. Taylor just looks like a Rex Ryan player but the Jets (who draft at #30) might move in the direction of Justin Houston as Vernon Gholston has been major disappointment.
Friday, March 4, 2011
2011 MOCK DRAFT - NFL
| 1. CAROLINA PANTHERS: PATRICK PETERSON, CB, LSU |
The Panthers are a conservative organization with numerous needs. They’ll go safe with Peterson. Peterson will be plugged in at one CB spot and immediately give Ron Rivera a building block on defense. They need a lot of building blocks so they may look to trade down.
| 2. DENVER BRONCOS: DA’QUAN BOWERS DE, CLEMSON |
Mike Fox is also conservative and will look to build a tough defense, starting with Bowers. Fairley has the most potential but needs to be on the right team. Bowers motor doesn’t stop and will step in and anchor the line from day 1.
| 3. BUFFALO BILLS: ROBERT QUINN, DE, NORTH CAROLINA |
Quinn is rising rapidly & the Bills need a disruptive force on the defensive line, especially one who can put some heat on the QB. It appears the issues with the agents that kept him off the field in 2010 have been resolved.
| 4. CINCINNATI BENGALS: A.J. GREEN, WR, GEORGIA |
They could pull a major shocker and pick Cam Newton, but they lost both T.O. & Ocho Stupido so they need a legitimate wide receiver on the roster. The Bengals need to figure out who is going to throw Green the ball since Carson Palmer is threatening to retire if he's not traded. Look for a QB in round 2.
| 5. ARIZONA CARDINALS: PRINCE AMUKAMARA, CB, NEBRASKA |
Prince's blazing top speed at the combine vaulted him towards the top of many draft boards. The Cards have a major need at pass rusher but Amukamara's versatility, leadership, tackling ability and now speed, make him too tempting to pass up.
| 6. CLEVELAND BROWNS: NICK FAIRLEY, DT, AUBURN |
Possibly the most talented player in the draft. There are some concerns about his motor and the fact that his entire career at Auburn wasn't like his outstanding senior season. With the switch back to a 4-3, Fairley should be the anchor Pat Shurmur is looking for.
| 7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ER'S: BLAINE GABBERT, QB, MISSOURI |
The obvious weak point on this team is QB. The 49ER's are ready to win now, but they won't get to that next level with the likes of Alex Smith at the helm. They could still go for someone like Donovan McNabb but I think that Jim Harbaugh will also want to start with a young QB with a ton of talent.
| 8. TENNESSEE TITANS: VON MILLER, OLB, TEXAS A&M |
They really want Gabbert and I can't see them going after Cam Newton. Fortunately there is a premier pressure player on the outside in Miller. Last year Miller put up 68 tackles, 17.5 for loss, 10.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. He's done nothing but impress since the season ended.
| 9. DALLAS COWBOYS: TYRON SMITH, OT, SOUTHERN CAL. |
They really want Amukamara, but his combine performance puts him out of reach. They need a lot of help on the offensive line and Smith should pair with Doug Free to give them two young bookend tackles. Smith is a little inexperienced and just growing into his frame, but is a superior athlete.
| 10. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: MARCELL DAREUS, DT, ALABAMA |
Now that Albert Haynesworth is out of the picture the Skins need to address the defensive line. Darius is a stud who is a great value at #10 and will team with Orakpo to make that unit a strength. They do need a QB, but if they take Newton here you know Snyder is running over Shanahan.
| 11. HOUSTON TEXANS: J.J. WATT, DE, WISCONSIN |
Yes this is a little high for Watt, but his stock has been rising. There are higher ranked players available but Watt has a motor and leadership qualities that the Texans need. This team is a competent defense away from being a major playoff contender.
| 12. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CAM NEWTON, QB, AUBURN |
The Cam watch is over. Sorry ESPN, he won’t last until the end of round 1. Newton has a TON of physical ability but has been a swirl of controversy all season. Newton will be the QB of the future and maybe the present depending on what they do in free agency.
| 13. DETROIT LIONS: NATE SOLDER, OT, COLORADO |
The up and coming Lions could add an outside pressure player here but if they don't protect Matt Stafford better they will be stuck around 500 for a while. Solder is tough, strong, long and athletic and gives the Lions one bookend to work with.
| 14. ST. LOUIS RAMS: JULIO JONES, WR, ALABAMA |
I may take a mulligan on this one, given Jones foot surgery. When healthy, Jones' size, hands and production give Sam Bradford the outside threat he so desperately needs. The Rams are building a strong foundation and the addition of Jones gives the Rams their own set of triplets.
| 15. MIAMI DOLPHINS: MARK INGRAM, RB, ALABAMA |
This is the consensus, safe pick. They do have a need at running back with the potential departure of Williams and Brown but Sporano is on loose footing in Miami and will need to bring in someone who can immediately help this team. Ingram has the potential to be the consistent big-play threat the Dolphins offense lacks.
| 16. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: CAMERON JORDAN, DE, CAL. |
The Jags have bigger needs such as linebacker and need a young QB to develop, but Jordan's total package is too hard to pass up. Why the slide? Just numbers. Jordan might be a much higher pick if this draft wasn’t loaded with defensive lineman.
| 17. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: ADRIAN CLAYBORN, DE, IOWA |
How do the Pats always have two #1 picks? They're smart, that's why. They treat it like a business and don’t make it personal. Clayborn is a high-character guy and a relentless pass rusher. He seems custom made for the Patriots who need a few more pieces on their young defense.
| 18. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: ALDON SMITH, OLB, MISSOURI |
The Chargers have a very good D, but need to generate more pressure on the passer. Smith should be able to handle that task with gusto. Smith is a sack machine who lives in opposing backfields. Smith is a steal for the Chargers at #18.
| 19. NEW YORK GIANTS: AKEEM AYERS, OLB, UCLA |
The Giants have been looking for linebackers for the last five years and will be pleasantly surprised to find the ultra-athletic and versatile Ayers still there at #19. The Giants have a bevy of talent along their defensive line and a solid secondary. Ayers could be the missing link in the middle.
| 20. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: RYAN KERRIGAN, DE, PURDUE |
The up and coming Bucs lack anyone who can consistently pressure the QB. Kerrigan's motor never stops and has a great work ethic that should fit right in on this young team. The pieces are lining up for the Bucs but can they leapfrog the Pack and Bears?
| 21. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: ANTHONY CASTONZO, OT, BC |
Castonzo is exactly what the Doctor and Matt Cassel need. The Chiefs also have a need a wide receiver. Given Todd Haley's stormy history with T.O., I doubt they bring in someone like Randy Moss, so they will have to address this position later on in the draft.
| 22. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: MIKE POUNCEY, OG, FLORIDA |
The Colts need Pouncey's kind of toughness. He wants to play center in the NFL, but that might not happen right away. Ideally the Colts would prefer a tackle at this spot but Pouncey is tough, talented and a winner. His pedigree doesn't hurt either.
| 23. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: AARON WILLIAMS, CB, TEXAS |
Asante Samuel needs help on the opposite side now that Eric Hobbs will retire after a major neck injury. The Eagles have plenty of playmakers on offense but their secondary was susceptible to big plays at times. Williams has good height and instincts but needs to become a better tackler & play more aggressive.
| 24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado |
Similar to the Eagles, the Saints have plenty of weapons on offense but their defense was susceptible to big plays all season. The Saints have more pressing needs on defense such as linebacker or along the line, but Smith is the most talented player left on the board and should be able to contribute immediately.
| 25. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: JAKE LOCKER, QB, WASHINGTON |
Regardless of whether they keep both Hasselback and Whitehurst, neither is the long-term answer at QB. They can both be adequate starters while the future QB is groomed. In a surprise, the Seahawks select local product Locker who was once thought of the same way people now view Andrew Luck.
| 26. BALTIMORE RAVENS: GABE CARIMI, OT, WISCONSIN |
There are no pass rushers available at this point and considering the Ravens have a big need along the offensive line, Carimi is a great fit at this point. Carimi is a massive man with an attitude. The 4-year starter for the Badgers will plug right in with the Ravens and be a fixture for years to come.
| 27. ATLANTA FALCONS: TORREY SMITH, WR, MARYLAND |
The Falcons would have loved to have Carimi at this spot because this team needs a little mental toughness but Smith should also fill a need opposite Roddy White. There are no major holes to fill as I write this, so they could also opt to tradedown and acquire future or additional picks.
| 28. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: RAHIM MOORE, FS, UCLA |
The Pats addressed their defensive line with their first #1, now fill a need in the secondary with the selection of Moore. Moore hits all the numbers and is a superior athlete who hasn’t always played up to his potential. Sort of a un-Patriot pick, but in the Pats system he could thrive.
| 29. CHICAGO BEARS: DEREK SHERROD, OT, MISSISSIPPI ST. |
The Bears really need a big play receiver but aren't going to find one at this point. Sherrod should be a starter from day 1, most likely at right tackle. He's a massive man who is athletic for his size and is one of the few kids who really has his head screwed on right.
| 30. NEW YORK JETS: JUSTIN HOUSTON, OLB, GEORGIA |
The Vernon Gholston experiment is over. An all time bust at this point in his career. Jason Taylor was adequate in spots but is not the answer. Houston lived in the other teams backfield last season and could be the ingredient this Jets team needs to put this team over the top.
| 31. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: TITUS YOUNG, WR, BOISE ST. |
No major needs for the Steelers at this point. Hines Ward can't play forever and Young is the kind of pesky player that seems to thrive in the Steelers system. Young has great hands and speed, but lacks maturity and ideal size.
| 32. GREEN BAY PACKERS: Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh |
Despite winning the super bowl and seeming to have a lot of depth at wideout, Rodgers and company could not have been too happy with all the dropsies the receiving corps had. Baldwin is a big man with good football speed. Baldwin did not run well at the combine but plays a lot faster.
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